DAILY TRIFECTA+: Passing The Buck To Pass The Bill
Guess who picks up the check, mate
THE SET-UP: President Trump just notched the biggest non-election victory of his political career. Republicans in the House and Senate delivered on his campaign promises by sending his “One Big Beautiful Bill” to his desk for what will no doubt be a theatrical signing ceremony on the Fourth of July … which is exactly how he scripted it.
In retrospect, all of the hand-wringing and arm-twisting was far less dramatic than it appeared. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) criticized the bill after she voted for it. She traded her vote for Alaska and Hawaii-specific carve-outs to ease cuts to SNAP food assistance and Medicaid. She also scored a now-infamous tax break for whaling captains.
Ironically, it was Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who finally stood her ground and voted “no.” But it was Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) who stood out among his peers. When Trump threatened to primary him, Tillis quickly announced he wouldn’t stand for re-election and took his new-found freedom to the Senate floor, where he exposed the accounting gimmicks that he believes will crash Medicaid. He and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) joined Collins in voting to killing the bill. Murkowski saved it.
Over in the House, the Freedom Caucus’s self-described paragons of principle collapsed like badly-made flans when Trump handed-out compliments and signed MAGA merch. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) has been a vocal critic of debts and deficits, and he made some compelling speeches during a marathon Rules Committee hearing. He attacked the “current policy baseline” and its phony math. He, like Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), said he was a “NO” because the Senate had “failed” the House by spending more and cutting less. Like all but two actually-principled Representatives—Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania—both Roy and Norman voted “YES” without getting anything in trade other than a reputation for being paper tigers.
After the Freedom Caucus assumed the position, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries used his “magic minute” privilege to hold the floor for 8 hours an 44 minutes. What I heard along with the anecdotes and platitudes was a roadmap for next year’s midterm election. Jeffries read letters from constituents in key House districts likely to suffer from cuts to SNAP and Medicaid. Many of their Representatives also wrote letters to Republican leadership detailing their reservations about the bill. Jefferies read those, too … always identifying signatories and their House district by name.
Compared to the painfully predictable ineptitude of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Jeffries’s stunt wasn’t quite the meaningless “performance” Speaker Mike Johnson said it was. He put targets on Republican-held seats in districts that rely upon the very programs Republicans were about to cut. If the Curtis Medical Center is a portend of things to come, there will be a lot of seats in-play come 2026. Per KLKN-TV in Lincoln, Nebraska:
A clinic in southwest Nebraska announced Wednesday that it is closing due to financial challenges, including anticipated Medicaid cuts.
McCook-based Community Hospital said it is shutting down its clinic in Curtis, a town of about 900 people.
The Curtis Medical Center has been in operation for more than 30 years.
“Unfortunately, the current financial environment, driven by anticipated federal budget cuts to Medicaid, has made it impossible for us to continue operating all of our services, many of which have faced significant financial challenges for years,” Community Hospital CEO Troy Bruntz said in a statement.
Sadly, I found a dozen stories from around rural America that predict similar closures … and almost without fail, they are in Red states and Republican districts. The bill’s architects delayed some of the pain until after the midterms … but if the Curtis Medical Center is the first of many dominoes yet to fall … Republicans had better hope their “fantastical” assumption of over 4% annual GDP growth is more than outlandish spin, because a rising tide won’t be enough to lift the voters who’ll be clinging to life preservers. They’re going to need a 500-year flood. - jp
TITLE: Republican Megabill Will Mean Higher Health Costs for Many Americans
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/one-big-beautiful-bill-medicaid-work-requirements-affordable-care-act-immigrants/
EXCERPTS: The deepest cuts to health care spending come from a proposed Medicaid work requirement, which is expected to end coverage for millions of enrollees who do not meet new employment or reporting standards.
In 40 states and Washington, D.C., all of which have expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, some Medicaid enrollees will have to regularly file paperwork proving that they are working, volunteering, or attending school at least 80 hours a month, or that they qualify for an exemption, such as caring for a young child. The new requirement will start as early as January 2027.
Many Medicaid enrollees can [also] expect to pay more out-of-pocket for appointments.
Trump’s legislation requires states that have expanded Medicaid to charge enrollees up to $35 for some services if their incomes are between the federal poverty level (this year, $15,650 for an individual) and 138% of that amount ($21,597).
Medicaid enrollees often don’t pay anything when seeking medical services because studies have shown charging even small copayments prompts low-income people to forgo needed care. In recent years, some states have added charges under $10 for certain services.
The policy won’t apply to people seeking primary care, mental health care, or substance abuse treatment. The bill allows states to enact even higher cost sharing for enrollees who seek emergency room care for nonemergencies. But if Medicaid patients fail to pay, hospitals and other providers could be left to foot the bill.
For those with Obamacare plans, the new legislation will make it harder to enroll and to retain their coverage.
ACA marketplace policyholders will be required to update their income, immigration status, and other information each year, rather than be allowed to automatically reenroll — something more than 10 million people did this year. They’ll also have less time to enroll; the bill shortens the annual open enrollment period by about a month.
People applying for coverage outside that period — for instance because they lose a job or other insurance or need to add a newborn or spouse to an existing policy — will have to wait for all their documents to be processed before receiving government subsidies to help pay their monthly premiums. Today, they get up to 90 days of premium help during the application process, which can take weeks.
The legislation also does not call for an extension of more generous premium subsidies put in place during the covid pandemic. If Congress doesn’t act, those enhanced subsidies will expire at year’s end, resulting in premiums rising by an average of 75% next year, according to KFF.
TITLE: Republicans Are Cutting Medicare. Not Only Medicaid, Medicare.
https://prospect.org/politics/2025-07-03-republicans-cutting-medicare-not-only-medicaid/
EXCERPTS: Republicans didn’t just cut Medicaid; they also have forced nearly half a trillion dollars in cuts to Medicare, the health program for the elderly.
Because of a statutory requirement to automatically impose budget cuts when legislation increases the deficit, the Big Beautiful Bill would require automatic sequestration cuts across the board, something that has been confirmed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) but has been largely absent from the debate over the bill. Medicare is one of the programs that will face the axe, and the damage sums to $490 billion over the next ten years, starting in the next fiscal year that begins in October. While many of the safety-net cuts in the bill are delayed to help Republicans with their re-election campaigns, the Medicare cuts must begin next year.
The Statutory Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) Act of 2010 requires the Office of Management and Budget to keep scorecards that track the cumulative effects of legislation on the budget deficit, based on estimates from the CBO. The Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill adds roughly $3.3 trillion in debt over the next ten years. That will have to be made up through automatic sequestration cuts.
As CBO confirmed in a letter to the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), OMB’s calculation is mandatory, and unless Republicans manage to also pass massive deficit-reducing legislation within this fiscal year, something that is incredibly unlikely to happen, the cuts would follow.
Republicans could have waived the inclusion of the Big Beautiful Bill on the PAYGO scorecard, averting the sequestration cuts, but they did not do so. Future legislation could waive the cuts as well, but that has yet to be discussed.
Therefore, OMB would be required to issue an order reducing spending by $330 billion by January 2026. Many accounts are exempted from sequestration, including Social Security and several programs affecting low-income Americans. But Medicare is not.
There is a limitation on Medicare cuts of 4 percent of the program. In fiscal year 2026, that would come out to $45 billion. These cuts would increase with the growth of the program, hitting $75 billion by 2034 according to CBO. The total ten-year cuts would equal $490 billion.
There are other Medicare cuts in the bill as well, as Jonathan Cohn has pointed out. In particular, the bill changes the enrollment process for the Medicare Savings Program, which helps poor seniors (who also qualify for Medicaid) afford their prescriptions. This could lead to more than 1.3 million poor seniors losing access to this program, incurring thousands of dollars in new costs that they will not be able to afford, and likely leading to them receiving fewer prescriptions and increasing their mortality rates.
TITLE: Here’s what to know about clean energy in Republican megabill headed to Trump
https://apnews.com/article/congress-clean-energy-climate-environment-trump-tax-bill-19b13a47fbb671218ee59ab9da136478
EXCERPTS: Congress passed a massive tax and spending cuts package Thursday that curbs billions of dollars in spending across clean energy.
The climate law passed during former President Joe Biden’s term included tax credits for systems and projects at home — like solar and batteries — that save homeowners money over time and significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions.
These systems have gotten cheaper over the years but they’re still hefty upfront expenses that some homeowners would struggle to absorb without the credits. An average rooftop solar installation can run $20,000 or more; the credit has covered almost one-third of that. An average heat pump typically costs several thousand dollars; the tax credit reimbursed up to 30% of the cost, or $2,000.
The U.S. Treasury Department said more than 2 million families claimed more than $2 billion of the credit for upgrades such as windows, insulation, heating and cooling systems in tax year 2023 returns. More than 1.2 million families claimed more than $6 billion in the credit for solar installations, solar water heating, geothermal heat pumps and battery storage and other improvements that same year.
The bill eliminates credits of up to $7,500 for buyers of new electric vehicles and up to $4,000 for buyers of used EVs.
EV sales have grown steadily, making up about 8% of new car sales in the U.S. last year, according to Motorintelligence.com. Biden had set a target for half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2030.
But that purchase may be harder for consumers to swallow without a credit. EVs sold for an average of $57,734 in May, while new vehicles overall sold at an average of $48,799, according to Kelley Blue Book.
The credits go away after Sept. 30.
For large-scale wind and solar, the bill speeds up the timelines projects must meet to qualify for a tax credit. The industry says it will be nearly impossible for many projects to meet those accelerated timelines, putting massive projects from Colorado to Texas to Arizona at risk.
The bill allows a full tax credit for wind and solar developments that start construction within a year of the law’s enactment. But projects that begin more than a year after the bill’s passage have to be operational by the end of 2027 or they won’t get a credit.
Atlas Public Policy, a policy consultancy, said roughly 28 gigawatts of wind and solar projects are planned to be operational after the start of 2028 but haven’t begun construction yet. Under the bill, they’re unlikely to qualify for a credit.
Nonpartisan and energy groups estimate the bill’s passage could increase average annual electricity costs by more than $100 per household by next year. If fewer solar and wind projects are added to the grid because there is less incentive and it is too expensive for developers to do so without credits, some states could see increases of more than $200.
Instead, the bill supports traditional fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, as well as nuclear power. Proponents say it will increase reliability since the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine.
TITLE: Trump megabill gives the oil industry everything it wants and ends key support for solar and wind
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/trump-one-big-beautiful-bill-oil-gas-coal-solar-wind-ira-tax-incentive-repeal.html
EXCERPTS: The law opens up federal lands and waters to oil and gas drilling after the Biden administration enacted curbs, mandating 30 lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico over 15 years, more than 30 every year on lands across nine states and giving the industry access to Alaska.
The law also slashes the royalties that producers pay the government for pumping oil and gas on federal lands, encouraging higher output.
“This bill will be the most transformational legislation that we’ve seen in decades in terms of access to both federal lands and federal waters,” Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry lobbying group, told CNBC. “It includes almost all of our priorities.”
The law also spurs oil companies to use a carbon capture tax credit to produce more crude. The tax credit was designed to support nascent technology that captures carbon emissions and stores them underground. Under Trump’s bill, producers would receive an increased tax benefit for injecting those emissions into wells to produce more oil.
The law ends the hydrogen tax credit in 2028, later than previous versions of the bill. Chevron and others are investing in projects to produce hydrogen fuel.
“I have a number of members who plan on investing significantly in hydrogen and so the extension to the end of 2028 was a welcome priority that was fulfilled,” Sommers said.
The coal industry is also a big winner from the law, which mandates at least 4 million additional acres of federal land be made available for mining. The law also cuts the royalties that coal companies pay the government for mining on federal land, and allows the use of an advanced manufacturing tax credit for mining metallurgical coal used to make steel.
SEE ALSO:
A List of Nearly Everything in the G.O.P. Bill, and How Much It Would Cost or Save
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/upshot/senate-republican-megabill.html
6 things you probably didn’t know were in Trump’s mega-bill
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/03/budget-bill-trump-congress/
Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Will Devastate Public Schools. America’s Kids Will Pay the Price
https://time.com/7299514/bill-will-devastate-public-schools/